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Pegana turns a continuous spread signal into discrete states because alerts need to be sticky. You can’t act on a continuous number that updates 100 times a minute. You need a state transition that fires once, holds while the underlying condition persists, and clears once when it actually resolves.

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The five states

StateMeaningAlert?
PEGGEDSpread inside the calm band for this assetNo
DRIFTSpread crossed the per-asset drift threshold; subscribers notifiedYes
DEPEGSpread crossed depeg threshold; urgent framingYes
CRITICALSpread crossed critical threshold; system tags the asset as actively breakingYes
UNKNOWNSource stale, low-confidence, or decoder mismatch; stickyNo (no alert; consumer should not act)
Plus a terminal state — BLACK_SWAN — for spreads beyond any historically-observed level. Never auto-exits.

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What each state implies for a consumer

  • PEGGED — the asset is doing what it promises. Lending protocols can price collateral at par. Insurance has nothing to fire on. Agents can swap freely.
  • DRIFT — early warning. The spread crossed the threshold for “this is no longer normal noise.” Subscribers get a notification. Most DRIFTs resolve back to PEGGED without ever reaching DEPEG. Lending protocols might tighten LTV by a few points; insurance preps payout logic; agents pause discretionary swaps.
  • DEPEG — the spread crossed the threshold for “this is materially broken right now.” Liquidation engines should already have pulled back. Insurance is firing. Agents should hard-pause any action that depends on this asset’s peg.
  • CRITICAL — the spread is large enough that recovery is not assumed. Treat the asset as a different (riskier) asset. Wind down exposure.
  • UNKNOWN — we don’t know. Do not act on stale information. The asset is not necessarily broken; we just can’t tell.

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The transitions

   ┌───────────┐
   │  PEGGED   │←──┐
   └────┬──────┘   │
        │ 30s @    │ 60s @
        │ ≥ drift  │ < drift-exit
        ▼          │
   ┌───────────┐   │
   │  DRIFT    │───┘
   └────┬──────┘
        │ 30s @
        │ ≥ depeg
        ▼
   ┌───────────┐
   │  DEPEG    │
   └────┬──────┘
        │ 30s @
        │ ≥ critical
        ▼
   ┌───────────┐
   │  CRITICAL │
   └───────────┘

   (UNKNOWN is orthogonal — any state can flip to UNKNOWN
    if source goes stale, and must dwell 60s after recovery
    before re-entering the live ladder)
Each transition is dwell-gated: the smoothed spread must hold the crossed threshold for the specified time. This filters out single-tick spikes. Entry dwell is 30s; exit dwell is 60s — see hysteresis FSM for why.

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What gets emitted

Every transition produces: 
{
  "alert_id": "9c8e7f3a-...",
  "asset": "USDC",
  "from_state": "PEGGED",
  "to_state": "DRIFT",
  "detected_at": "2026-05-26T14:32:11.482Z",
  "spread_at_trigger": -0.0034,
  "intrinsic_usd": 1.0000,
  "market_usd": 0.9966
}
This payload is what /v1/alerts returns, what /v1/me/webhooks POSTs, and what the Telegram bot formats into a human-readable message.

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What does NOT get emitted

  • Sub-state noise. A spread oscillating between 25 and 32 bps with threshold at 30 bps stays in DRIFT — no alert flood.
  • Recovery within the entry dwell window. If the spread crosses 30 bps for 5 seconds and falls back, no transition fires.
  • Counts of “ticks since last alert” or similar accumulator state. Each transition is independent; we don’t publish “USDC has spent 47 minutes in DRIFT today.”
For accumulator metrics, use /v1/me/alerts (per-user delivery history) or /v1/alerts (global feed).

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Next

Confidence score

When the signal is sketchy — depth, staleness, decoder drift.

Hysteresis explained

Why entry and exit thresholds differ.